Escalating US-Iran tensions have triggered a new round of violent volatility in the global shipping market, with freight rates soaring at an unprecedented pace.
On March 13, the Shanghai Shipping Exchange released data showing the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) climbed to 1710.35 points, rising for the third consecutive week with a weekly gain of roughly 14%. All four major ocean routes posted hikes, with the Persian Gulf route bearing the brunt of geopolitical conflict: its weekly surge exceeded 40%, and a staggering 143% cumulative increase in half a month made it the epicenter of this rate rally.
Persian Gulf Route: Listed Prices But No Actual Capacity
Asia-to-Persian Gulf freight rates hit $3,220 per TEU, jumping $933 (40.8%) in a week. Yet the market faces a “listed but unavailable” dilemma: most carriers have suspended bookings for Persian Gulf destinations, slashing operational capacity sharply.
In-transit cargo is forced to divert to Indian ports, then transship via land or feeder ships to Khor Fakkan and Fujairah (outside the Strait of Hormuz) before reaching Arab markets. This multimodal workaround keeps logistics flowing but pushes costs far beyond regular sea freight.
Europe-Med Routes Boosted by Diversion Effects
The Persian Gulf shutdown ripples across other routes. Diverted cargo lifted Asia-to-Mediterranean spot rates by ~$300 to $3,300 per 40FT container (12.9% growth), while European routes rose over 11%. Cargo originally bound for Egypt via the Red Sea is also rerouted to the Mediterranean, worsening capacity shortages.
Although the Strait of Hormuz handles just 3% of global container trade, the complex network risks cascading inefficiencies and lost effective capacity, CSC Securities noted.
North American Routes: Mixed Performance
Unlike the red-hot Middle East routes, North American lanes show divergence. SCFI data puts West and East US route gains at 15.9% and 14.5% weekly, but forwarders report weak actual transaction prices.
West US spot rates stand at $1,550–1,700 per 40FT, East US at $2,400–2,500. Carriers have delayed a planned March 15 rate hike by a week, as soft demand and geopolitical upward pressure battle for dominance.
Fujairah Port Attacks Add Transshipment Uncertainty
On March 16, Fujairah Port’s oil facilities (UAE) were hit by drone strikes, sparking fires and halting partial operations—just one day after resuming from a prior attack. As a key transshipment hub outside the Strait of Hormuz, its disruption threatens fuel supplies and further strains Middle East shipping chains.
Air Freight & European Port Congestion Worsen
Rising jet fuel prices have forced airlines to hike fuel surcharges sharply: Cathay Pacific’s long-haul surcharge doubled to HK$1,164 from March 18. European ports (Hamburg, Rotterdam, Antwerp) face worsening congestion, low efficiency and full yards, driving up global supply chain pressure.
Market Outlook
If the Middle East conflict drags on over a month, a Red Sea-style crisis may recur: ship diversions, capacity crunches and container shortages will follow. Major carriers plan to impose GRI of up to $2,000 on European routes, with further hikes expected in coming weeks; North American routes may see April price adjustments.
Shippers and forwarders must monitor regional updates and carrier booking rules closely, assess cost and timeliness risks, and prepare contingency plans for prolonged supply chain turbulence.
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