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NRF's holiday sales forecast optimistic 2022

Views: 10     Author: Site Editor     Publish Time: 2022-11-07      Origin: Site

Holiday spending is expected to remain healthy despite recent inflationary challenges, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF). nRF forecasts holiday retail sales in November and December will increase 6 to 8 percent over 2021 to $942.6 billion to $960.4 billion.


Last year's holiday sales grew 13.5 percent over 2020 to $889.3 billion, breaking the previous record. Holiday retail sales have grown an average of 4.9 percent over the past 10 years, with epidemic spending accounting for considerable growth in recent years.


Consumers remain resilient despite the pressures of inflation and rising prices being felt by consumers," said the NRF president. Many households will supplement their spending with savings and credit to provide a cushion that will lead to a positive holiday season."



NRF Historical holiday sales and 2022 forecast

NRFs holiday sales forecast optimistic 2022


NRF expects sales, including online and other non-brick-and-mortar sales, to grow 10 - 12 percent to $262.8 - 267.6 billion. This figure is up from $238.9 billion last year.


According to NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz, "This holiday season is anything but typical." NRF's holiday forecast takes many factors into account, but the overall outlook is generally positive as consumer fundamentals continue to support economic activity."


Kleinhenz said, "The holiday shopping season started early this year, a growing trend in recent years, as shoppers worry about inflation or causing prices to rise again." "Retailers are responding to this demand and we expect to see continued promotional activity in the coming months."


Kleinhenz's comments echo NRF's consumer data. That data shows that 46 percent of holiday shoppers this year said they plan to buy before November, given concerns about inflation, according to the National Retail Federation's annual survey conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics.


NRFs holiday sales forecast optimistic 2022-2


However, the data show that the average consumer plans to spend on gifts and holiday items such as decorations and food will be in line with the average of the past 10 years.


NRF expects retailers to employ 450,000 to 600,000 seasonal workers. This compares to 669,800* seasonal hires in 2021. Some of this hiring may be delayed until October as many retailers rush to replenish staffing to meet growing consumer demand.


NRF's holiday forecast is based on an economic model that considers a variety of indicators such as employment, wages, consumer confidence, disposable income, consumer credit, past retail sales and weather. The data excludes auto dealers, gas stations and restaurants and focuses only on core retail. (Holidays are defined as Nov. 1 to Dec. 31 )

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