What Does the 90-Day US-China Tariff Truce Extension Mean for Global Trade?

Publish Time: 2025-07-30     Origin: Site

Key Outcomes of the Stockholm Talks

  1. Tariff Truce Extended

    • The 24% US "reciprocal tariffs" and China’s countermeasures will remain suspended for another 90 days (until ~November 2025).

    • This prevents an automatic reset to 54% tariffs on $380B in bilateral trade.

  2. Progress on Structural Issues

    • Tech Export Controls: The US has temporarily paused new restrictions on semiconductor exports (e.g., NVIDIA’s H20 AI chips).

    • Rare Earths: China may ease export curbs in exchange for US tech concessions.

    • Energy Trade: Disputes over China’s Russian/Iranian oil imports were discussed but remain unresolved.

  3. Economic De-Risking Continues

    • Both sides affirmed the "guardrails" of their 10% baseline tariffs, allowing room for future adjustments.

    • China emphasized "no decoupling" while accelerating alternative supply chains (e.g., Argentina for soybeans, Malaysia for semiconductors).


Why This Matters

  • For Businesses:

    • Auto/Electronics Makers (Tesla, BYD, Apple) avoid $12B in new costs from tariff resets.

    • Lithium Battery & Solar Exporters regain pricing power as US duties stay at 10% (vs. threatened 125%).

  • Geopolitically:

    • The extension buys time for a potential Trump-Xi summit in late 2025.

    • EU-style "trade peace" remains elusive due to lingering disputes over tech dominance and energy security.


What’s Next?

  • November Deadline: If no deal, tariffs could snap back—54% on US goods, 30% on Chinese imports.

  • Tech War Watch: US may tighten chip curbs post-election, while China could restrict gallium/germanium exports.

  • Market Impact: Analysts expect renminbi stability and a 5-10% rally in tariff-sensitive stocks (e.g., CATL, TSMC).

Quote:
"This isn’t peace—it’s a timeout. The real battle over AI, chips, and clean tech is just heating up." — Trade analyst, SCMP.


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