What Does the 90-Day US-China Tariff Truce Extension Mean for Global Trade?
Publish Time: 2025-07-30 Origin: Site
Key Outcomes of the Stockholm Talks
Tariff Truce Extended
The 24% US "reciprocal tariffs" and China’s countermeasures will remain suspended for another 90 days (until ~November 2025).
This prevents an automatic reset to 54% tariffs on $380B in bilateral trade.
Progress on Structural Issues
Tech Export Controls: The US has temporarily paused new restrictions on semiconductor exports (e.g., NVIDIA’s H20 AI chips).
Rare Earths: China may ease export curbs in exchange for US tech concessions.
Energy Trade: Disputes over China’s Russian/Iranian oil imports were discussed but remain unresolved.
Economic De-Risking Continues
Both sides affirmed the "guardrails" of their 10% baseline tariffs, allowing room for future adjustments.
China emphasized "no decoupling" while accelerating alternative supply chains (e.g., Argentina for soybeans, Malaysia for semiconductors).
Why This Matters
For Businesses:
Auto/Electronics Makers (Tesla, BYD, Apple) avoid $12B in new costs from tariff resets.
Lithium Battery & Solar Exporters regain pricing power as US duties stay at 10% (vs. threatened 125%).
Geopolitically:
The extension buys time for a potential Trump-Xi summit in late 2025.
EU-style "trade peace" remains elusive due to lingering disputes over tech dominance and energy security.
What’s Next?
November Deadline: If no deal, tariffs could snap back—54% on US goods, 30% on Chinese imports.
Tech War Watch: US may tighten chip curbs post-election, while China could restrict gallium/germanium exports.
Market Impact: Analysts expect renminbi stability and a 5-10% rally in tariff-sensitive stocks (e.g., CATL, TSMC).
Quote:
"This isn’t peace—it’s a timeout. The real battle over AI, chips, and clean tech is just heating up." — Trade analyst, SCMP.