Shipping Turmoil! Operational Stability of Major Routes "Collapses"

Publish Time: 2025-12-24 Origin: Site

In 2024, the operational stability of Asia-Northern Europe, North America, and Mediterranean routes has completely disappeared, with capacity fluctuations reaching an unprecedented level. A structural reshaping of the global shipping market is underway, as carriers shift from stable vessel scheduling to frequent and high-intensity capacity adjustments—trends further amplified by major players like Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) reshuffling their ultra-large container ship deployments.

Sea-Intelligence, a leading provider of global supply chain research, analysis, data services, and consulting, analyzed the operational stability of Asia-North America and Asia-Europe trade routes using "operational capacity fluctuation" (total capacity entering and exiting a trade route, an indicator to measure fluctuation levels and carrier capacity deployment changes) in its latest industry report.

Data in 2025 shows that the shipping market has undergone major structural changes. Carriers are no longer adhering to fixed sailing schedules but are making frequent capacity adjustments to respond to short-term demand volatility, operational disruptions, and profit-driven route shifts—marking the end of pre-pandemic capacity deployment stability.

Unprecedented Capacity Fluctuations Across Major Routes

This trend is most pronounced on the Asia-Northern Europe route, where capacity fluctuation reached 11 million TEU, 138% higher than in 2023 and far exceeding the 3-5 million TEU range seen between 2012 and 2019. The sharp surge is partly driven by MSC’s surprise move to withdraw all its ultra-large container ships (19,200-24,300 TEU class) from the Far East-Northern Europe route, replacing them with neo-Panamax vessels averaging 14,700 TEU <superscript>1.

Other key routes also show high volatility:

Asia-North America West Coast: Capacity fluctuation hit a record 10.4 million TEU, a 32% increase from 2024.
Asia-Mediterranean: Fluctuation reached 6.9 million TEU, up 80% from 2023 and 21% from 2024. Notably, MSC redirected its withdrawn ultra-large ships to this route, boosting the average capacity of its "Jade" West Mediterranean route to 23,550 TEU <superscript>1.
Asia-North America East Coast: Fluctuation remained high at 6.6 million TEU but grew steadily compared to other routes.

Structural Shift: Capacity Flows from Major to Secondary Routes

The predictable "cascade buffer" effect—where capacity smoothly flows from major trade routes to secondary ones—has been replaced by a highly dynamic system. Today, vessels are frequently rerouted, with a clear trend of capacity previously absorbed by major Asia-Europe routes shifting to secondary trade routes.

MSC’s capacity restructuring exemplifies this shift. Amid plummeting Asia-Northern Europe freight rates (down 44% year-to-date to $1,578/TEU by February 2025), the carrier redirected its 24,000 TEU-class ships to high-margin routes like Asia-Mediterranean (freight rate $2,624/TEU) and Asia-West Africa (freight rate $4,000/TEU) .

It even deployed ultra-large ships on its Africa Express route for the first time, leveraging upgraded West African ports’ ability to handle megamax vessels.

As the first super carrier to operate independently after withdrawing from the 2M Alliance, MSC’s flexible capacity deployment highlights the new normal of the shipping industry. Analysts note that such dynamic adjustments may prompt competitors like Maersk to reevaluate their alliance strategies, further intensifying route stability volatility.

Implications for the Global Supply Chain

The collapse of major route stability poses challenges for shippers, who face increased uncertainty in transit times and freight costs. However, it also reflects the shipping industry’s adaptation to post-pandemic market realities—balancing supply and demand, optimizing profit margins, and responding to geopolitical and operational disruptions. For secondary routes, the influx of capacity is driving infrastructure upgrades and market expansion, reshaping the global shipping network layout.

Shipping Turmoil! Operational Stability of Major Routes "Collapses"

Unprecedented Capacity Fluctuations Across Major Routes

Structural Shift: Capacity Flows from Major to Secondary Routes

Implications for the Global Supply Chain

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