How CMA CGM’s Return to the Red Sea with 15% Discount Could Reshape Asia-Europe Shipping
Publish Time: 2025-06-24 Origin: Site
CMA CGM’s Strategic Return to the Red Sea
June 24, 2025 – French shipping giant CMA CGM has made a landmark return to the Suez Canal with its 20,000 TEU "Osiris", the first ultra-large container vessel to transit since Houthi attacks forced diversions around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope in late 2023. The move comes with a 15% toll discount from the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) for ships over 130,000 net tons, valid until August 2025.
Why This Matters for Asia-Europe Trade
1️⃣ Faster Transit Times:
10–14 days saved vs. Cape detours (e.g., Shanghai-Rotterdam drops from 42 to 28 days).
CMA CGM’s "Levant Red Sea Express" new service (Istanbul-Jeddah) further optimizes regional connectivity.
2️⃣ Cost Relief:
55% surge in Middle East rates (e.g., Shanghai-Dubai at $2,761/FEU) may ease if more carriers follow.
SCA’s discount cuts $200,000+ per transit for mega-ships, incentivizing Red Sea returns.
3️⃣ Risk vs. Reward:
Houthi threats persist, but CMA CGM’s phased re-entry (with 3 ships in June) tests security.
War risk insurance remains 3× higher than pre-crisis levels.
Potential Impacts on Shipping Dynamics
1. Rate Stabilization
Current Asia-Europe rates: ~$7,000/FEU (vs. $2,400 pre-crisis).
If Suez traffic recovers: Analysts project 20–30% rate drops by Q3 2025.
2. Capacity Rebalancing
12% global capacity currently tied to Cape routes could shift back, easing vessel shortages.
Singapore congestion (450,000 TEU backlog) may alleviate as fewer ships divert.
3. Competitive Shifts
Maersk/Hapag-Lloyd still avoid Red Sea; CMA CGM’s gamble could win market share.
Niche carriers (e.g., Ellerman) face pressure as mainstream options return.
Key Takeaways for Shippers
✅ Monitor Suez Reopenings: More carriers may follow if Osiris transits safely.
✅ Lock Long-Term Contracts: Rate volatility likely as Cape/Suez options coexist.
✅ Diversify Routes: Rail/airfreight remain backups amid lingering risks.
"This isn’t just about toll savings—it’s a litmus test for Red Sea viability," says Xeneta’s Peter Sand.