Views: 0 Author: Site Editor Publish Time: 2026-08-26 Origin: Site
The US‑Israel‑Iran conflict that erupted at the end of February 2026 has lasted for a full six months. The geopolitical shock has inflicted far‑reaching consequences on the Middle Eastern aviation industry, going well beyond the headline figure of a 50% plunge in passenger flight utilization. For Middle‑East air freight, the conflict has directly disrupted the world’s critical Asia‑Europe air cargo corridor, triggering sharp capacity drops, runaway freight rates, surging operating costs and fundamental reshaping of global supply‑chain patterns.
The Middle East — notably Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi — has long served as the “global crossroads” linking Asia, Europe, Africa and the Americas. Following the outbreak of hostilities, large swathes of Gulf airspace were closed, instantly undermining connectivity across these vital transit hubs.
Supply chains suffered unprecedented blows. Regional aircraft utilization nosedived by over 50% at one point. Qatar Airways Cargo, the world’s largest international air‑freight carrier, suspended all scheduled services amid airspace closures and only resumed partial operations on March 19. Global air cargo capacity shrank by an estimated 12%‑22% in the early phase of the conflict.
For Middle‑East carriers, air‑cargo demand fell 18.2% year‑on‑year in April, with capacity dropping 22.9%. Even in May, regional air‑freight demand was still down 8.9% YoY and capacity 9.2% YoY, making the Middle‑East the world’s worst‑performing market.
Capacity recovery remained slow even after the US‑Iran cease‑fire memorandum signed on June 17. By end‑June (Week 25), the Middle East and South Asia still faced a roughly 19% capacity gap compared with pre‑conflict levels (Week 7). Nearly one‑fifth of cargo capacity has yet to return to the market.
Severe capacity shortages triggered runaway surges in spot freight rates.
Spot rates on key trade lanes rocketed in the early conflict period. Rates for South Asia‑Europe climbed more than 50%, while South Asia‑USA saw gains exceeding 14%. As of early June, spot rates for Middle‑East‑Europe stood 89% above pre‑war levels, and South Asia‑Europe rates were 74% higher.
On a global scale, April’s average spot air‑cargo price rose 30% year‑on‑year to USD 3.34 per kg, hitting the highest mark since October 2022. By late June, the global average air‑freight rate was still 35% higher YoY. Spot rates across the Middle East and South Asia jumped by 52%, with the critical Dubai‑Europe lane more than doubling versus the prior year.
Behind elevated rates lie not only tight capacity but also extreme volatility in fuel expenses. Disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint carrying one‑fifth of global oil supplies — effectively locked down this waterway and sent crude oil prices soaring. Jet‑fuel costs nearly doubled year‑on‑year, climbing from CNY 5,000‑6,000 per ton to CNY 8,000‑12,000 per ton. Since jet fuel typically accounts for 30‑40% of airlines’ total operating expenditure, multiple global carriers have announced higher fuel surcharges amid cost inflation.
Even where partial flight services resumed, enforced route diversions created new operational inefficiencies. Flights traditionally transiting the Gulf were forced to reroute via Central Asia or North Africa, adding 1‑4 hours to flight durations.
Take Cathay Cargo as an example: its European freighter flights previously stopped over in Dubai for refuelling en route to Europe. Post‑conflict, services must bypass Dubai and fly non‑stop. Extra fuel must be uplifted to cover longer distances, directly reducing each aircraft’s available cargo payload. Longer flight times plus lower payload limits mean fewer goods per aircraft and fewer total rotations, further squeezing usable air‑cargo capacity.
The conflict delivered the heaviest blow to core air‑cargo corridors connecting Asia and Europe. Middle‑East‑Europe cargo demand fell 19.8% YoY in May, while the Middle‑East‑Asia lane dropped 16.5% — both recording three consecutive months of contraction. Air‑reliant commodities including pharmaceuticals, perishables and aircraft parts suffered cargo backlogs and transport disruptions.
Market participants have been compelled to adapt. Emirates SkyCargo confirmed its dedicated freighter fleet kept operating without interruption. Early in the crisis, it redeployed 14 passenger aircraft to carry cargo in belly holds; some flights operated non‑stop to Europe and North America, skipping the Dubai hub entirely.
Nevertheless, numerous small‑and‑medium shippers opted to suspend logistics services on Middle‑East routes and adopted a wait‑and‑see stance. Some shippers explored work‑around solutions: routing goods from Asia via Los Angeles in the US, then using sea‑air multimodal transport to reach Europe. Though costly, this became a necessary fallback amid extreme market conditions.
The Middle‑East conflict has brought structural, long‑lasting impacts to air freight. It fractured a global air‑cargo network heavily reliant on efficient Gulf‑based transfer hubs. In the short term, markets face sky‑high rates and capacity crunches. Over the medium‑to‑long term, carriers and shippers, operating under fragile cease‑fire arrangements, must reassess route‑network design and build greater supply‑chain resilience.
Even should the cease‑fire hold, geopolitical uncertainty, exorbitant fuel prices and the slow recovery of passenger‑belly cargo capacity will prevent the Middle‑East air‑freight market from returning to pre‑conflict norms for a considerable period ahead.
