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How CMA CGM’s Return to the Red Sea with 15% Discount Could Reshape Asia-Europe Shipping

Views: 0     Author: Site Editor     Publish Time: 2025-06-24      Origin: Site

CMA CGM’s Strategic Return to the Red Sea

June 24, 2025 – French shipping giant CMA CGM has made a landmark return to the Suez Canal with its 20,000 TEU "Osiris", the first ultra-large container vessel to transit since Houthi attacks forced diversions around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope in late 2023. The move comes with a 15% toll discount from the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) for ships over 130,000 net tons, valid until August 2025.

Canale di Suez

Why This Matters for Asia-Europe Trade

1️⃣ Faster Transit Times:

  • 10–14 days saved vs. Cape detours (e.g., Shanghai-Rotterdam drops from 42 to 28 days).

  • CMA CGM’s "Levant Red Sea Express" new service (Istanbul-Jeddah) further optimizes regional connectivity.

2️⃣ Cost Relief:

  • 55% surge in Middle East rates (e.g., Shanghai-Dubai at $2,761/FEU) may ease if more carriers follow.

  • SCA’s discount cuts $200,000+ per transit for mega-ships, incentivizing Red Sea returns.

3️⃣ Risk vs. Reward:

  • Houthi threats persist, but CMA CGM’s phased re-entry (with 3 ships in June) tests security.

  • War risk insurance remains 3× higher than pre-crisis levels.


Potential Impacts on Shipping Dynamics

1. Rate Stabilization

  • Current Asia-Europe rates: ~$7,000/FEU (vs. $2,400 pre-crisis).

  • If Suez traffic recovers: Analysts project 20–30% rate drops by Q3 2025.

2. Capacity Rebalancing

  • 12% global capacity currently tied to Cape routes could shift back, easing vessel shortages.

  • Singapore congestion (450,000 TEU backlog) may alleviate as fewer ships divert.

3. Competitive Shifts

  • Maersk/Hapag-Lloyd still avoid Red Sea; CMA CGM’s gamble could win market share.

  • Niche carriers (e.g., Ellerman) face pressure as mainstream options return.


Key Takeaways for Shippers

✅ Monitor Suez Reopenings: More carriers may follow if Osiris transits safely.
✅ Lock Long-Term Contracts: Rate volatility likely as Cape/Suez options coexist.
✅ Diversify Routes: Rail/airfreight remain backups amid lingering risks.

"This isn’t just about toll savings—it’s a litmus test for Red Sea viability," says Xeneta’s Peter Sand.


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