According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the global economy grew by 3.3% in 2025, showing a trend of initial weakness followed by recovery, reflecting volatility caused by US tariff policies.
Growth diverged sharply between advanced and emerging economies:
Emerging economies: 4.4%
Advanced economies: 1.7%
Key economies:
US: 2.1%
Eurozone: 1.4%
India: 7.3% (leading global growth)
China: 5.0%
Global trade exceeded $35 trillion in 2025, with goods trade rising 6%–7%.
Trade was strong in H1, supported by front-loaded cargo flows and AI investment. Growth softened from Q4 as demand was pulled forward.
Global supply chain restructuring accelerated in 2025, with friend‑shoring and near‑shoring rebounding.UNCTAD data shows trade between politically aligned countries grew faster than in 2021, while near‑shoring trade recovered from H1 2025.
In 2025, policy uncertainty encouraged shippers to restock early, supporting overall container shipping demand.
Trans‑Pacific Eastbound: volume down 4.1%
Europe‑bound Westbound: up 8.7%
Middle East, South Asia, Africa: double‑digit growth
Latin America: steady expansion
China’s export diversification continued to support emerging markets, helping offset external pressures.
Vessel Deliveries Ease, but Orderbooks Remain Strong
Global container fleet capacity surpassed 33 million TEU in 2025, up about 7% year‑on‑year.
Newbuildings delivered: 2.25 million TEU, down 23% from 2024 peak
New orders: over 4.5 million TEU, near record levels
Smaller vessels saw a sharp rise in orders, driven by regionalization and fleet renewal
By end‑2025:
60% of ships below 6,000 TEU were over 15 years old
Nearly 30% of ships below 3,000 TEU were over 20 years old
Freight Rates Decline; Industry Profitability Remains Firm
Freight rates became more volatile in 2025.The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) averaged 37% lower than in 2024, with major lanes nearly halved.
Drewry forecasts 2025 industry EBIT at $32 billion, down 57% year‑on‑year, with an EBIT margin of 11.1%.
2026 Outlook
Policy Uncertainty Eases; Growth Continues
IMF projects global growth of 3.3% in 2026.
Advanced economies: 1.8%
Emerging markets: 4.2%
WTO expects global goods trade volume to grow for the third consecutive year.
Key forecasts:
US: 2.4%
Eurozone: 1.3%
India: above 6.0%
ASEAN: 4.2%
China: 4.5%
US tariff policy remains a key risk due to the 2026 midterm elections.Monetary policies are expected to diverge, with the Fed likely to cut rates.
Demand Grows at Moderate Pace; Emerging Markets Lead
Mainstream institutions forecast 2026 container demand growth of 1.6%–2.5%.
Europe‑bound trade: +1.0%–4.5%
Belt and Road regions: strong import growth
ASEAN: intra‑regional trade expands further
AI investment will boost high‑value cargoes such as semiconductors, servers, and data center equipment.Top five tech firms are expected to spend over $470 billion in 2026, up at least 26%.
Vessel Deliveries Hit Multi‑Year Low; Red Sea Normalization Uncertain
In 2026, new vessel deliveries will fall to below 1.5 million TEU, a 30%+ drop from 2025.
Global fleet capacity is expected to grow just 2%–4%, down sharply from 7% in 2025.
Full normalization in the Red Sea could release about 2.1 million TEU of effective capacity (around 6% of the global fleet).However, carriers are returning cautiously, with most still avoiding the route.
Demolition is expected to accelerate in 2026, with estimates ranging from 92,000 to 450,000 TEU.Idling and green retrofits will help cushion supply pressure.
