Freight Rates Rebound, US West Coast Surges Further! Has the Container Shipping Market Sounded the Counteroffensive Horn?
Publish Time: 2025-12-23 Origin: Site
The container shipping market has recently shown a complex yet overall positive trend. According to the latest data released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange (SSE) on December 19th, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) stood at 1552.92 points, rising 3.1% week-on-week and achieving a second consecutive week of rebound. Meanwhile, the Drewry World Container Index (WCI) also surged by 12% to $2182 per FEU. Despite the traditional year-end seasonal adjustment, freight rates on major routes have demonstrated unexpected resilience supported by shipping companies' strategic regulation and relatively stable demand.
Route Performance: US Routes Lead Strongly, Europe Routes Stabilize
The latest freight rate increase was mainly driven by North American routes, while European routes remained relatively stable. Details are as follows:
North American Routes: Steady Demand, Rising Spot Rates
Transport demand remained generally stable, with spot booking prices continuing to rise. The freight rate from Shanghai to basic ports on the US West Coast reached $1992 per FEU, a sharp increase of 11.9% from the previous period; the rate from Shanghai to basic ports on the US East Coast was $2846 per FEU, up 7.3%. According to large freight forwarders, although the spot market price softened slightly by $50-$100 after the December 15th increase (currently ranging between $2000-$2100 per FEU for the US West Coast), shipping companies have actively announced price increase plans for January next year, with some quotes aiming to push the US West Coast rate above $3100 per FEU.
The trans-Pacific route also performed strongly in the Drewry Index: the freight rate from Shanghai to Los Angeles rose 18% week-on-week to $2474 per FEU, and from Shanghai to New York increased 19% to $3293 per FEU.
European Routes: Off-Season Stability, Mild Volatility
The market has entered the traditional off-season with relatively stable demand and mild freight rate volatility. The freight rate from Shanghai to basic European ports was $1533 per TEU, a slight decrease of 0.3%; the rate to basic Mediterranean ports was $2833 per TEU, up 3.5%. In the spot market, European route prices currently remain at around $2400-$2600 per FEU, indicating effective management of year-end shipping capacity by shipping companies.
Charter Market Remains Hot, Long-Term Leases Become a New Trend
In line with the rebound in spot freight rates, the container charter market maintained vitality until the end of 2025. Market analysts point out that immediately available ships for spot charter are extremely scarce, prompting liner companies to turn to longer-term leases to lock in future capacity.
A notable trend is the lengthening of lease terms, with even 10-year long-term leases emerging, particularly for feeder vessels around 1800 TEU. This strategy not only reflects liner companies' determination to lay out in advance to ensure operational stability but also provides confidence for shipowners to invest in building new-generation energy-efficient medium-sized vessels, facilitating the overall renewal of the fleet.
Three Reasons Why Massive Orders Haven’t Crushed the Market
Currently, global container ship orders on hand exceed 11.6 million TEU, accounting for 34.8% of the existing fleet capacity, with a higher ratio of large vessel orders to the fleet. Although such a high order volume would traditionally trigger deep concerns about "overcapacity," the container shipping industry has not fallen into the expected predicament in 2025. Analysts believe there are multiple structural reasons behind this:
Geopolitical disruptions (such as the Red Sea crisis) have objectively absorbed part of the effective capacity and extended ship voyage times.
Global trade itself has shown resilience. A report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) predicts that global trade volume will grow by 7% in 2025, with significant growth in intra-Asian trade and South-South trade. These structural changes continue to create demand for container transportation.
Leading liner companies have significantly enhanced their ability to manage market fluctuations through alliance operations, precise capacity management, and long-term contracts, avoiding pure vicious price competition.
2026 Market Outlook: Balancing Fragility and Resilience
For 2026, the industry generally holds a fragile outlook, with uncertainty and the shadow of "overcapacity" expected to become the "new normal." External factors such as global trade policies and regional conflicts will continue to make the shipping industry a geopolitical bargaining chip. However, challenges also contain opportunities.
Precisely based on predictions of the future competitive landscape and uncertainty, leading enterprises including Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) and Maersk are still actively investing in new ships and locking in long-term capacity, aiming to fully prepare for various future scenarios.
Analysts from Shipping Weekly believe that the recent rebound in freight rates is the result of the combined effect of short-term regulation and medium-to-long-term structural factors. Despite the uncertain road ahead, the container shipping industry is attempting to find a new balance amid fluctuations through more refined operations and strategic layout, demonstrating stronger adaptability and resilience compared to previous cycles.