Freight Rate War Looms: Global Container Fleet Hits 7,000 Vessels, Triggering Overcapacity Warnings
Publish Time: 2025-12-05 Origin: Site
Recent data from shipping research firm Clarksons reveals a historic milestone: as of early November this year, the global container ship fleet has exceeded 7,000 vessels for the first time. Over the past 37 months, the fleet has grown by 1,000 vessels—representing a 16.67% increase in three years and setting a new record for expansion speed.
The Gap Between Scrapping Needs and Reality
New Ship Orders: A Growing Concern
On the newbuild front, global container ship orders surpassed 10 million TEUs by early September this year—equivalent to the total existing capacity of five Evergreen Marine fleets. Industry leaders have urged that new ship construction should focus on replacing old vessels and meeting environmental emission reduction requirements, rather than blind capacity expansion.
Clarksons further reports that the global container ship fleet now stands at 7,007 vessels with a total capacity of 32.7 million TEUs.
Since 2024, 936 new container ship orders have been placed, revitalizing the shipbuilding market. At this rate, the global fleet is on track to approach 8,000 vessels in the next three years. Currently, the global order book remains at a staggering 1,109 vessels, with 991 scheduled for delivery by the end of 2028.
2016 Freight Rate War: A Warning from History
Sea-Intelligence warns that the global container shipping industry is facing "structural overcapacity," which is expected to peak in 2027—with excess levels comparable to the 2016 freight rate war. Back then, overcapacity led to widespread industry losses and even the collapse of South Korea’s Hanjin Shipping.
Red Sea Route Normalization: If the Red Sea route resumes normal operations by mid-2026, a large amount of previously diverted capacity will be released.
Accelerated Scrapping: Vessels over 20 years old are expected to be scrapped faster starting in 2026.
Short-Term vs. Long-Term Trends: A prolonged Red Sea crisis may delay overcapacity in the short term but cannot reverse the long-term trend.
Demand Risks: Changes in U.S. trade policies may suppress demand, while continued new ship orders will further exacerbate oversupply.