CMA CGM Confirms Red Sea Resumption Date: Starting January 15 on This Route

Recently, France-based CMA CGM became the first shipping line to officially announce that it will resume its INDAMEX (India-Middle East-US East Coast) route through the Red Sea via the Suez Canal starting January 15, 2026. This adjustment will cut the voyage time by 14 days, reducing the total voyage duration from 91 days to 77 days, a 15.4% decrease.

This is not just a single route adjustment, but a substantive shift in industry trends. The INDAMEX route deploys 11 container ships with a capacity of 6,000-10,000 TEUs, and the first ship to resume the route, the CMA CGM VERDI, will depart from Karachi, Pakistan, to New York.

Why CMA CGM Locked in the "January 15" Schedule

CMA CGM's decision is particularly notable nearly a year after the Red Sea crisis broke out. The INDAMEX route, a secondary route under CMA CGM, covers Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and the west coast of India, and reaches the US East Coast after calling at Jeddah Port, Saudi Arabia.

The reduction in voyage days brings significant cost advantages. A 15% reduction in voyage days directly translates to savings in fuel costs, crew expenses, and ship depreciation. For shipping companies currently under profit pressure, this cost reduction is irresistible.

The Suez Canal toll itself is a considerable expense. Currently, the northbound toll is $1.45 million, and the southbound toll is $1.15 million. However, during the Red Sea crisis, the Canal Authority has reduced the toll by 15% to attract shipping lines to return.

More Than Just a Return: The Deep Logic of Shipping Game

CMA CGM's decision has been positively interpreted by industry analysts. Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta, pointed out that CMA CGM's announcement to achieve a complete east-west route cycle through the Suez Canal "is undoubtedly an important step in the right direction".

But the resumption of the Red Sea route is not simply a "return to normal". Before the Red Sea crisis, shipping lines had already flexibly chosen routes based on market conditions. When oil prices were low, some shipping lines arranged return ships to detour the Cape of Good Hope to naturally reduce sailings and save canal tolls.

The choice of resumption timing by different shipping lines reflects their strategic considerations. Hapag-Lloyd specifically pointed out that the shorter voyage time after returning to the Red Sea may cause port congestion due to early arrival.

Therefore, shipping lines are more likely to choose the off-season with more blank sailings, such as after the Chinese Lunar New Year, to adjust sailings to avoid the chain reaction of port congestion.

Data from Lloyd's List shows that the number of ships passing through the Suez Canal in November exceeded 1,000, the highest level since January 2024, and has maintained an upward trend for three consecutive months, recovering to about 40-50% of the pre-crisis level.

Global Overcapacity: Resumption May Intensify the Crisis to 20%

Behind the resumption of the Red Sea route lies a more worrying industry challenge. The latest analysis by UK shipping broker Braemar points out that if container shipping lines fully resume Red Sea routes in 2026, the overcapacity of the container fleet may reach 14-15%.

More seriously, with the addition of a large number of new capacities, this figure may reach an alarming 20% by 2027. The total global ship order volume is currently about 10 million TEUs, far exceeding the expected demand.

The long route detouring the Cape of Good Hope has objectively played a role in "absorbing excess capacity". Braemar expects that by 2025, the container fleet will have an overcapacity of 13-14%, but due to the detour of the Red Sea, the actual overcapacity will be reduced to between 3.5% and 4%.

Real Test: The Long Road from "Announcement" to "Implementation"

Although CMA CGM has clearly announced the resumption plan, the cautious attitude within the industry is still obvious. A recent joint press conference between the Suez Canal Authority and Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc caused a small episode.

The Canal Authority announced that Maersk would resume Red Sea sailings from early December, but Maersk later clarified that "the company has not yet determined the specific date for resuming Suez Canal sailings".

This divergence shows the complex decision-making process from "preparing to resume" to "actual implementation". Safety assessments, insurance agreements, customer communication, and operational adjustments all take time, especially when the regional security situation is still uncertain.

The first ship to resume the route, the CMA CGM VERDI, will be an important test case. Its safe passage will provide practical data and confidence for other ships, and will also test the actual response of the Houthi armed forces to the "resumption of Red Sea sailings" announcement.

Shipping lines are facing a typical multi-party game situation. First movers may gain cost advantages and market competitive advantages, but also bear higher safety risks; followers have more sufficient safety information, but may lose market opportunities.

This dynamic balance affects the decision-making schedule of each company, and also explains why, under the consensus of "the general trend", the specific implementation plans of each company still differ.

The traffic data of the Suez Canal has revealed signs of recovery, with the number of ships passing through in a single month exceeding 1,000 in November, showing an upward trend for three consecutive months. The war risk surcharge for the Red Sea section has dropped to the lowest level in nearly two years, only 0.2% of the hull value.