Shipping Rates Plummet to Cost Levels Despite High Season

Key Developments

1. Rate Collapse

• US West Coast: $2,089/FEU (SCFI) → $1,700/FEU (Maersk’s July 9 offer), below most alliances’ cost.

• US East Coast: Dropped from $3,700–4,100/FEU to $3,400–4,000/FEU.

2. Market Shakeout

• Non-alliance carriers may exit US routes as rates hit unsustainable levels.

• Vessels shifted from US to Europe after June’s "peak pre-tariff rush," now suppressing European rates.

3. Structural Glut

• Supply growth: 10.3% (newbuild deliveries).

• Demand growth: Just 2.0%.

• Alphaliner’s 2023 Forecast:

• Even 10% capacity absorbed by Red Sea diversions can’t offset oversupply.

Drivers & Outlook

Tariff Chaos: Trump’s pending tariffs freeze importer demand; no pre-August stockpiling.
Europe Shift: US-China trade slump pushes cargo to Europe, but Q3 volumes may disappoint.
⚠️ Warning: More rate wars and route suspensions expected if demand stays weak.