How West Coast Freight Rates Crashed 50% in 10 Days – $2,000/FEU Now on Table

West Coast Rate Collapse: The $4,000 Premium That Vanished

June 15, 2025 – In a stunning reversal, transpacific spot rates have nosedived 50% in 10 days, with non-alliance carriers now offering $2,000/FEU to fill ships – exposing severe market oversupply.

The Rollercoaster Timeline

May 12-June 1: Rates surged 100% to $6,100/FEU post US-China tariff talks
June 3-15:

• 6/3: -$500 (Alliance GRI canceled)

• 6/11: $4,500-$4,800 (Discounted $4,100 deals emerged)

• 6/12: -$1,000 (Panic selling began)

• 6/15: $3,000/FEU mainstream, $2,000/FEU from non-alliance K*TC

"This isn't normal competition – it's a capacity bloodbath," a Shanghai freight forwarder warned.

3 Warning Signs of Oversupply

1️⃣ Alliance Desperation: Major carriers matched non-alliance $2,000 rates within 48 hours – unheard of in previous cycles.
2️⃣ Newbuild Onslaught: 22 extra-loaders entered China-US lanes in Q2, adding 19% more capacity than 2024 peak.
3️⃣ Empty Repositioning: LA/LB empty return ratio hit 63% vs. 54% in May – ships sailing half-full westward.

What Shippers Should Do Now

Lock 3-month contracts: Rates may rebound post-Q3 hurricane season
Audit BAF clauses: Ensure fuel surcharges reflect current bunker prices
Diversify carriers: Leverage non-alliance options for 10-15% savings