All Routes Up! Rare Freight Rate Inversion: Asia's Short-haul Rates Surpass US West Coast
Publish Time: 2025-12-16 Origin: Site
The international shipping market has witnessed a significant rebound in freight rates, with an unprecedented phenomenon grabbing industry attention: short-haul rates from Asia have exceeded long-haul rates to the US West Coast. Here’s the detailed analysis based on the latest data and market feedback.
Key Data: SCFI Rebounds Sharply with All Routes Rising
According to the latest data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) rebounded notably in the current period after fluctuations. It reached 1506.46 points, up 108.83 points or 7.79% from the previous period.
All major ocean routes saw across-the-board gains, with standout performances including:
Mediterranean Route: 19% increase (the most significant gain)
US West Coast & US East Coast Routes: Both up over 14%
European Route: 9.86% increase
Unprecedented Phenomenon: Asia Short-haul Rates Outpace US West Coast
Against the backdrop of global supply chain restructuring, the shipping market’s traditional price system is undergoing structural changes.
Recent data shows that intra-regional freight rates from Shanghai to Southeast Asian ports (e.g., Vietnam, Indonesia) have continued to climb. Notably, these short-haul rates have temporarily surpassed the long-distance trans-Pacific rates from Shanghai to the US West Coast.
This rare "short-haul higher than long-haul" trend has sparked widespread discussions in the industry.
Market Driver: Shipping Companies’ Price Hike Plan vs. Weak Demand
Freight forwarders point out that the SCFI rebound partly reflects shipping companies’ planned price hikes for the second half of December. However, the market faces a core contradiction:
Demand remains weak. Some shippers have seen rising costs due to tariffs and other factors, so they only maintain shipping for necessities. Meanwhile, major shipping alliances have not significantly cut sailings to control capacity.
Whether this rate hike can sustain or repeat the "rise first, then fall" pattern remains uncertain.
US Route Market: Clear Hike Willingness, Uncertain Implementation
Shipping companies have revealed their price hike targets: pushing 40ft container rates above $2,000 for the US West Coast and above $3,000 for the US East Coast.
However, spot market data tells a different story. Last Thursday, US West Coast spot rates fell by about $100 per FEU to around $1,350. Although some carriers still quoted $1,450, the overall market range is:
US West Coast: $1,350 - $1,500
US East Coast: $2,100 - $2,200
A new hike plan is scheduled to take effect on December 15, aiming for $2,100 (US West) and $3,100 (US East). A shipping alliance even proposed FAK reference rates of $2,350 (US West) and $3,250 (US East) for December 15-21.
Market opinions are divided: Some forwarders expect a $300-$400 short-term rebound, but the industry generally believes the actual hike may only be around $300 per FEU and lack sustainability. Carriers seek temporary revenue gains, while shippers tend to adjust plans to avoid high prices.
European Route Market: Strong Quotations, Supply-Demand to Determine Future Gains
Logistics companies report positive signals for European routes. New quotations after December 15 are trending up, with expectations of continued growth next week.
Major shipping alliances have announced FAK reference rates of $2,400 - $2,700 per FEU for the second half of December, representing a $300-$500 increase from current levels.
Outlook: Sustained Hike Relies on Peak Season and Capacity Control
Industry insiders agree that a significant and sustained rate hike requires two key factors:
The traditional shipping peak season before the Lunar New Year (January 2026)
Effective capacity control measures by shipping companies
Currently, although cargo volumes on US West Coast and European routes have recovered, oversupply has diluted the positive impact on rates. Since the 2026 Lunar New Year falls in February, the pre-holiday shipping rush may start in late December 2025 or January 2026—when supply-demand changes will become the key driver of rate trends.